Expected Move

Expected Move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current levels of volatility.

In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption, it’s not the real distribution of return

Expected moves:

Expected move Manually entered Standard deviation function allows users to type in the standard deviation input they want and see the range and according to probability. The probability of chosen standard deviation is shown on the panel.

Expected Moves with 1.5 entered standard deviation:

Smoothing function uses two-pole Butterworth filter to smooth out the expected move bands.

Smoothed Expected Moves:

Multi time frame function allows you to run the expected move band on higher time frame than current time frame.

Weekly Expected Move on Daily chart:

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Expected move with step line display:

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