Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31.
The area of probability range is based on an inverse normal cumulative distribution function. The inverse cumulative distribution gives the range of price for given input probability. People can adjust the range by adjusting the input probability in the settings. The probability of the entered standard deviation will be shown in the middle when the “show probability” setting is on.
Probability Cone with different probability input:
Using a short look back for mean will make the cone having a directional bias.
Probability Cone on 30 bars sample:
Time back settings shift the estimation period back by the input number. It’s the origin of when the probability cone start to estimation it’s range.
Probability Cone plotted back in history:
Probability Cone indicator link: